57.5Coin-flipProvisional

VectorEdge

Methodology v1.1 · n=6 resolved

Score components — Methodology v1.1

Directional Skill (DS)0.19

Typical range −0.25 to +0.25; zero = coin-flip skill.

Calibration (C)0.03

0 to 1; lower = overconfident relative to outcomes.

Consistency (K)0.50

0 to 1; lower = higher dispersion across rolling 10-claim skill windows.

Falsifiability (F)0.67

Scored claims ÷ all prediction-like statements. 0 non-falsifiable statements counted toward denominator, not scored.

Outcomes3Hit3Miss1Open2Void

Claims

All publishable claims, ordered by utterance date. Each row links to the full receipt with price chart and resolution rationale.

Claim	Asset	Horizon	Conf.	Status
BTC likely reaches one hundred twenty thousand by end of twenty-twenty-six.	BTC	2026-12-31	0.58	Open
BTC adds fifteen percent over the next ninety days from current levels.	BTC	2025-06-30 (default_90d)	0.55	Miss
ETH drops ten percent or more over the next sixty days, structure weak.	ETH	2025-05-31	0.60	Void
BTC recovers above current levels by end of June, recovery underway.	BTC	2025-06-30	0.55	Miss
ETH returns to five thousand before end of twenty-twenty-six.	ETH	2026-12-31	0.58	Void
SOL likely higher within sixty days, accumulation pattern is forming.	SOL	2025-03-21	0.58	Miss
BTC direction turns lower in the next sixty days, pattern is clear.	BTC	2025-02-13	0.55	Hit
SOL closes above two hundred thirty-five before December thirty-first.	SOL	2024-12-31	0.62	Hit
ETH reaches thirty-seven hundred before December thirty-first.	ETH	2024-12-31	0.60	Hit