Brier
59.0Coin-flipProvisional

NorthChain

Methodology v1.1 · n=9 resolved

Score components — Methodology v1.1
Directional Skill (DS)0.39

Typical range −0.25 to +0.25; zero = coin-flip skill.

Calibration (C)0.00

0 to 1; lower = overconfident relative to outcomes.

Consistency (K)0.50

0 to 1; lower = higher dispersion across rolling 10-claim skill windows.

Falsifiability (F)0.69

Scored claims ÷ all prediction-like statements. 3 non-falsifiable statements counted toward denominator, not scored.

Outcomes6Hit3Miss1Open3Non-falsifiable

Claims

All publishable claims, ordered by utterance date. Each row links to the full receipt with price chart and resolution rationale.

Bitcoin will close above one hundred fifty thousand before next year ends.Open
BTC2026-12-31conf. 0.85
Bitcoin will be above its current level in ninety days from now.Hit
BTC2025-07-29 (default_90d)conf. 0.85
I expect a Bitcoin daily close above eighty thousand before end of July.Hit
BTC2025-07-31conf. 0.65
Bitcoin is set to reclaim the highs within ninety days, absolutely.Miss
BTC2025-07-14 (default_90d)conf. 0.95
Ethereum will be higher in ninety days, the bottom is clearly in.Hit
ETH2025-07-14 (default_90d)conf. 0.90
Everyone who understands Web3 knows crypto adoption is just getting started.Non-falsifiable
ETH—
Ethereum will be much higher in ninety days, I am very confident in that.Miss
ETH2025-04-05 (default_90d)conf. 0.90
BTC will be at new highs within ninety days, I expect that strongly.Miss
BTC2025-04-05 (default_90d)conf. 0.90
The halving cycle never fails, this market cycle will be the biggest.Non-falsifiable
BTC—
Bitcoin will be above a hundred thousand by early January, easy.Hit
BTC2025-01-09conf. 0.85
Crypto infrastructure is the most important technology being built.Non-falsifiable
BTC—
Ethereum will follow Bitcoin higher into year-end, I am very confident.Hit
ETH2024-12-31conf. 0.90
Bitcoin closes December above one hundred thousand, without question.Hit
BTC2024-12-31conf. 0.90

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We publish statistics about public statements; we never recommend instruments or actions. Methodology v1.1