Brier
51.7Coin-flipProvisional

Aylin Markets

Methodology v1.1 · n=5 resolved

Score components — Methodology v1.1
Directional Skill (DS)-0.17

Typical range −0.25 to +0.25; zero = coin-flip skill.

Calibration (C)0.09

0 to 1; lower = overconfident relative to outcomes.

Consistency (K)0.50

0 to 1; lower = higher dispersion across rolling 10-claim skill windows.

Falsifiability (F)0.38

Scored claims ÷ all prediction-like statements. 0 non-falsifiable statements counted toward denominator, not scored.

Outcomes3Hit2Miss1Open7Void

Claims

All publishable claims, ordered by utterance date. Each row links to the full receipt with price chart and resolution rationale.

BTC reaches one hundred thousand by end of twenty-twenty-six.Void
BTC2026-12-31conf. 0.62
If ETH breaks above twenty-eight hundred by September, SOL reaches two-fifty by year-end.Open
SOL2025-12-31conf. 0.58
ETH closes above thirty-two hundred by December thirty-first.Miss
ETH2025-12-31conf. 0.60
BTC closes above eighty-five thousand by September thirtieth, high conviction.Void
BTC2025-09-30conf. 0.63
If BTC closes below seventy-five thousand, further downside toward sixty thousand follows.Void
BTC2025-09-30 (default_90d)conf. 0.60
ETH will be lower sixty days from now, correction is not complete.Void
ETH2025-04-30 (default_90d)conf. 0.65
BTC closes below eighty thousand by end of April, the structure demands it.Hit
BTC2025-04-30conf. 0.63
SOL closes above three hundred dollars by April tenth, likely.Miss
SOL2025-04-10conf. 0.55
BTC will be lower ninety days from now, the trend has shifted.Void
BTC2025-04-10 (default_90d)conf. 0.62
ETH closes above four thousand by April tenth, based on wave count.Void
ETH2025-04-10conf. 0.57
BTC gains eight percent over the next sixty days, structure supports it.Void
BTC2025-02-06conf. 0.55
ETH reaches thirty-eight hundred by December fifteenth, based on structure.Hit
ETH2024-12-15conf. 0.58
BTC daily close above one hundred and five thousand by December thirty-first.Hit
BTC2024-12-31conf. 0.60

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We publish statistics about public statements; we never recommend instruments or actions. Methodology v1.1